By Annum Rafique
Under the Environment (Wales) Act 2016, the Welsh Government is required to reduce GHG emissions in Wales by 80% by 2050 (compared to 1990 level) (WG, 2019). Considering this legislation, the Welsh Government has improved its efforts to combat climate change by reducing emissions through all sectors of the economy including the residential sector. Households are also becoming more aware of their carbon footprint and are increasingly concerned about the environment. This has created a great potential for emissions abatement from household energy use for space and water heating. Low-carbon systems could play an integral part in addressing climate change and the future of energy systems.
The reduction in household emissions due to low-carbon systems such as PV, biomass boilers (Wood Pellets and Chips), Air Source Heat Pump (ASHP) and Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHP) were measured for residential houses in Gwynedd, Wales. Approximately 71% of houses in Gwynedd used gas for space and water heating, followed by electricity (15%), then oil (8%), LPG (5%), and lastly, coal (1%) resulting in 0.3 Mt CO2 emissions per year. We aimed to introduce a variety of policies that may be implemented to shift from conventional to low-carbon technologies in hopes of reducing household emissions. Three alternative policy scenarios were constructed to capture the effect of policy changes that may influence a low-carbon technology’s investment costs, the market penetration of the technology and improvement in energy efficiency.
The first scenario assumed that over the years, the production efficiency of low-carbon technology would increase, leading to a reduction in the cost of technology (CCC, 2015). Due to the reduction in cost of technology, the uptake of these technologies by consumers would also increase. This scenario assumed an increase in market penetration by technology due to a reduction in investment costs. With the increase in market share of these low-carbon technologies, the market share of gas as an energy source would decrease in parallel. Under this scenario, the emissions from energy use in houses in Gwynedd reduced to 0.2 Mt CO2. The second scenario assumed that over the years, the trend of increase in energy prices would continue. Moreover, the emissions from electricity would decrease due to the decarbonisation of electric grid. Under such a scenario, the total emissions reduced were 0.12 Mt CO2 per year.
The third scenario included a combination of policies which assumed that the penetration rate of low-carbon technologies has doubled from the current trend followed by a reduction in investment costs. The future rise in energy costs was also considered along with a reduction in emissions from electricity use. The total emissions abated in a year rose significantly to 0.19 Mt CO2 per year under these policy changes.
Hence, the largest emission saving and reduction was achieved by a combination of policies that not only increased the share of low-carbon technologies in homes but also lowered the carbon content of electricity through decarbonisation of electric grid.
References
CCC 2015. Sectoral Scenarios for the Fifth Carbon Budget.
WG 2019. Welsh Government. Prosperity for All: A Low Carbon Wales.